(DailyAnswer.org) – Former President Donald Trump is beating Vice President Kamala Harris 52% to 42% in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new Harris X/Forbes poll. The survey, conducted between July 19 and July 21, shortly followed an accurate prediction by journalist Mark Halperin that President Joe Biden would step down from his re-election campaign.
Though Trump is reportedly maintaining a narrow lead in most polls since Biden left the race, another poll carried out after Biden’s announcement to withdraw shows Harris leading at 44% to Trump’s 42%. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio sent the Trump campaign a memo that warned of a “honeymoon” period for Harris, after the presumptive nominee secured enough endorsements from Democratic delegates to qualify as the presidential nominee. Fabrizio noted the heavy coverage of Harris in the media since Biden endorsed her shortly after stepping down.
Left-leaning commentary highlighted Trump’s surprisingly mediocre performance in polls that was missed by Fabrizio; the combination of Biden’s poor performance in a debate with the former president, the attempt on Trump’s life at a Pennsylvania rally and the build-up to the Republican National Convention raised expectations that a Trump victory in November is inevitable. Some Democratic conspiracy theorists even suggested the assassination attempt had been staged for a photo-op to win sympathy for Trump, despite pressure already mounting on Biden to step down to ensure Democrats have a chance of winning the election.
According to the Harris X/Forbes poll, Trump is leading at 48% to 33% against Harris among independent voters. They were tied at 45% among Latin American voters, and Harris is leading at 65% to Trump’s 25% among black voters. The former president has an 11-point lead in the suburbs at 51% to 40%.
The poll also found that Trump has greater support on the Right than Harris does on the Left. Of registered party members sampled, 92% of Republicans expressed support for Trump compared to 83% of Democrats who said they would vote for Harris in November.
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